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Despite some news accounts to the contrary, the energy crisis in California is far from over. And the pain it is causing consumers is balm for sales of solar, making the state an increasingly hot PV property for an industry that's always looking for a good market and a shortcut to the money.
You can almost see Carsten Bethge rubbing his hands in anticipation. »Watch out, Germany,« warns the head of marketing and sales at Uni-Solar, the PV unit of Bekaert ECD in Michigan. An increase in US sales could put the squeeze on the German market by reducing US exports. To hear Bethge tell it, California could be the next PV Mecca, with the energy woes there, if not a trend, at least »a longer blip« on the radar screen. But even Bethge admits the troubles haven't »gelled into sales yet.« What has gelled is an awareness of PV. Where six months ago, one to two calls used to come into Uni-Solar's California sales offices each day, the average now ranges from 10 to 20. »The more inquires you receive, the more business you will get,« says Bethge, who has added new consultants in the state. »It's simple arithmetic.« California, which observed its first day free of emergency alerts in a month on Feb. 21, is far from being out of the woods. Bill Bottenberg, vice president of EcoEnergies, one of the largest integrators in the state, says that despite all the efforts of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis to lower rates by setting up long-term contracts for purchasing wholesale electricity, average rates could soon reach about $0.18 per kWh, 70 percent above current prices. EcoEnergies has already seen a doubling of »real sales« to four installations a month, a figure Bottenberg expects will increase, judging by a fivefold increase in recent inquiries. The US quasi-monopolist for PV inverters, Xantrex Technology Inc., is upbeat as well. Vice president Ron Pitt says the national sales forecast for the firm's Trace SunTie grid-connected inverters has increased two to three times, with »about half of that due to California.« The Vesta, a new solar-enabled inverter for backup systems, will be introduced in California ahead of its planned April debut, says Xantrex CEO Mossadiq Umedaly. There is no doubt that money is the PV magnet. The California Energy Commission (CEC), the state agency charged with dispensing a $3-per-watt buy-down rebate for renewables, was not only successful in keeping the rate from being reduced to $2.50 per watt in February, but may even be able to increase the rebate soon, especially if the program becomes more popular. »It wouldn't make any sense to start going down on the rebate when people are just now starting to get interested in solar systems,« says Sandford Miller, CEC account manager. In January, the CEC reported 250 reservations for the buy-down program, more than in the whole second half of 2000. With $40 million left in the current program and another $50 million in a legislative push by Gov. Davis, the funding looks very sustainable. In addition, a program adding $135 million annually through 2012 for emerging technologies, which was signed into law last September, was supposed to have started with about 10 percent, or $13.5 million, going to the rebate program each year, increasing to 15 percent by 2007. Now, says Miller, depending on state PV demand, he foresees that share rising to 20 percent or more. Once the amount of money for the buy-down program is worked out, Miller says the CEC will look into increasing the minimum size of installations from 10 to 50 kW. In the state legislature, at least five emergency bills affecting PV have been introduced, from sales tax exemptions and tax credits to banning standby charges for connection fees and expanding net metering time-of-use regulations. A San Francisco city official is calling for a revenue bond for solar in the November elections to fund the installation of solar technology to supplement municipal utility generation. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), with a buy-down program which has lured Siemens Solar to set up a module assembly factory within the city limit (see PI 3/2001 p. 18), is proposing the city council implement a 10 percent PV tax break and pushing an ordinance for both old and new city facilities to be fitted with PV. Energy Photovoltaic Inc. (EPV), based in Princeton, New Jersey, is headed westward, having announced in February that it is setting up a 5 MW plant to manufacture amorphous silicon thin-film modules in Sacramento, where it has a long-term deal withthe Sacramento Municipal Utility Department (SMUD) to supply modules for its buy-down program. California-based PowerLight Inc. will be installing a 500 kW PV system on a jail in northern California's Alameda county in June, the largest roof-mounted system in the US, partly the result of a county administrator who panicked when he saw nightmare rates hit San Diego last summer. When asked if there was perhaps some schadenfreude in the California effect on the PV industry, Bill Bottenberg of EcoEnergies pauses. »Well,« he shrugs, »I have to pay bills, too.« Bekaert ECD Solar Systems LLC California Energy Commission California Legislature EcoEnergies Los Angeles Department of Water and Power Energy Photovoltaic Inc. PowerLight Inc. William
P. Hirshman
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