PHOTON International The Photovoltaic Magazine

Germany's annual PV symposium focuses on export activities

Each year, the German PV industry gets together at the monastery in Staffelstein, Bavaria, to present new products and discuss market trends. Despite impending elections in September that may be crucial for PV's further growth in this country, Staffelstein neglected that topic and instead discussed export opportunities.

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Many PV companies active in Germany arrange new product presentations at the PV Symposium in Staffelstein. Tyco introduced its recently IEC-certified module connector and presented with Total Energie, the first company to completely switch to its products.

Hansjörg Gabler spoke in a proud voice: »PV has left its niche existence behind.« In his opening speech, the chairman of the PV Symposium in Staffelstein, Bavaria, pointed to 65 MW of installations in Germany in 2001, which corresponds to a world production market share of about 20 percent and helped to create about 6,000 new jobs. As a whole, he said, the German Renewable Energy Law has created 50,000 jobs, while the charcoal and nuclear industries employs less people. »We should defend this success with enthusiasm,« said Gabler, who also heads the PV department of the Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research (ZSW) in Stuttgart.

In his traditional annual survey of the PV industry, Armin Räuber of the Freiburg consultancy PSE also noted the positive effects of German and European funding politics: »It looks like the hunt has begun, after we let the Japanese build up a competitive advantage for three years.« In his opinion, the most promising candidates are AstroPower, RWE Solar, and Isofoton. Räuber reported increased European module prices in 2001 due to more expensive silicon. But in his opinion, the market was excellent, so as a whole the industry was profitable for the first time. In his final statement, Räuber asked politicians to be patient with their demands for price decreases, which market forces will eventually provide. »I hope the funding politics last long enough to develop a sustainable PV market,« he concluded.

Switzerland dropped out of that track at an early stage, after Swiss voters rejected proposals for high solar incentives in a Sept. 2000 referendum. Regarding the German elections in Sept. 2002, Swiss consultant Thomas Nordmann warned the PV industry against complacency in the current situation and demanded lobbying efforts. »I want to meet you here next year, in the monastery on the hill, and not down in the vale of tears.« In his presentation, Nordmann showed how system costs have evolved in Switzerland and Germany since 1989. While he reported a 55 to 70 percent system price decline, the rate for modules was only 35 to 45 percent compared with a rate of 70 percent for BOS. »We can annually reduce costs by 5 to 10 percent,« but only if the funding conditions are appropriate.

Though elections are six months away, German distributors have already experienced dramatically low demand in January and February. Maybe it was just part of a normal trend during the early months of the year, when the construction business »pauses.« What turned out to be a substantial problem was that several wholesalers added new employees during the boom phase, and stocked up on modules after last summer's supply shortages. Apparently, a few had such liquidity problems that they began »winter sales« campaigns with 10 percent price reductions below average market levels to about EUR3.60 ($3.10) per watt. Perhaps the business dip explains why 4 percent fewer visitors (524) and 16 percent fewer exhibitors (51) showed up this time in Staffelstein. What stood out more was a subject missing from the agenda that has always been there in the past. No politician from the German parliament or public servant from the Ministry of the Economy stopped by to talk about their visions for PV, with elections on the horizon. And none of the speakers at Staffelstein discussed, or even mentioned, an initiative by the Social Democrat-Green governing coalition to pass an amendment to the Renewable Energy Law that would dispose of the 350 MW cap – marking a possible end to high feed-in incentives for grid-connected PV systems in Germany. A cynic might conclude that the planners of the panel discussion on export politics were visionaries as chances for the current government coalition to stay in power are not likely. However, Winfried Hoffmann, CEO of RWE Solar GmbH, expressed the industry view on shipments to developing countries, where the need for PV is undisputedly greater than in industrialized countries. »If we wanted to export everything to developing countries, we would not invest EUR150 million ($130 million), because we cannot sell 100 MW there.« He suggested focusing investments in industrialized countries over the next five to ten years, in order to bring prices down 5 percent per annum and improve logistics before large-scale exports commence. The European MP Rolf Linkohr advised the PV industry to take advantage of Kyoto tools like green certificates, joint implementation (JI), and clean-development mechanisms (CDM) for their export goals. »Watch what will follow the ratification of the Kyoto protocol. In Europe, we will get a CO2 emissions guideline.« To help small and medium-sized enterprises make use of JI and CDM, the German development bank (KfW) is creating a special fund. Primarily known in Germany for administering the 100,000 Roofs Program, the KfW also funds renewable energy usage and rural electrification projects with solar home systems (SHS) in developing countries. According to the KfW's Elke Hellstern, renewable energy projects with PV components are in preparation for India, China, Bolivia, and Ecuador, while special SHS projects are up and running in Morocco, South Africa, and soon, Brazil. Hellstern's contribution trigged an animated discussion about the KfW opening its tenders on an international level. The German PV industry complained about an unequal situation in relation to their foreign competitors. »Other countries use hidden soft measures to support their industries, so they can bid their products at lower prices,« explained Frank Wouters, spokesman for CLE, a German lobbying association for rural electrification. For the future, the German industry hopes to get some »legal« help from the new German Energy Agency (dena), which is intended to promote private-sector export activities (see PI 3/2002, p. 9). But an initial survey to involve the renewable energy industry and coordinate future activities was not sent to PV companies. Hopefully, communication with politicians will improve in the coming months. Otherwise, the darker of Thomas Nordmann's scenarios may come true – with the next Staffelstein conference being organized in the vale of tears.