PHOTON International The Photovoltaic Magazine

Halftime in German 100,000 Roofs Program

By the end of July, Germany's 100,000 Roofs Program, which began in early 1999, had approved low-interest loans for a total power of 147.6 MW – that is, almost half of the 300 MW program limit.

The remaining subsidized loans are to be allocated by the end of next year. Whereas this year's allocations will total 80, 95 MW will be made available for next year.

The solar industry was somewhat skeptical as to whether the program's goals would really be met after relatively weak demand earlier this year (see PI 7/2002, p. 12). But statistics on the number of applications received and projects approved published by the German development bank Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), which has managed the 100,000 Roofs Program since the start of July, show hopeful signs of increasing interest.

By June 31, the KfW had received a total of 5,364 applications (2001: 5,835), of which only 16 were refused (2001: 30) . However, 5,978 (2001: 9,908) applications were approved, providing funds of €143 million ($142 million) (2001: €211 million; $209 million). A large number of the applications filed last year were only approved this year, which explains the statistical difference between the two years. Whereas 25.9 MW were approved by the end of June -- if one doesn't take into account waivers in the single-digit percentage -- about 29.9 MW had been approved in the same period last year.

To understand these statistics, it is important to know that there was a backlog last year of almost 10,000 applications from 2000. Thus, the most significant factor for developments this year is the influx of new applications - which are being received at a magnitude comparable to last year. By the end of last June, almost one-third of all applications from 2001 had been received. If things continue as they did last year, one can expect credit requests for close to €400 million ($397 million). This would be enough to fund the construction of about 75 MW PV systems, which would just fail to reach this year's goal of 80 MW - though it would match last year's 76 MW level.

That would leave around 100 MW available for the final year of the 100,000 roofs program (2003), instead of the originally estimated 95 MW. This means that the plan to install 300 MW could be concluded by the end of 2003. The solar industry is preparing itself for this possibility: »According to our prognosis, the goal of the 100,000 Roofs Program will be fulfilled next year,« said Carsten Körnig from the Berlin-based solar industry lobby association Unternehmensvereinigung Solarwirtschaft. But, naturally, this remains dependent on an important condition: that a new German federal government will continue the support for PV after September's elections.