Growth slows in Golden State November, 2009: California on pace to add approximately 240 MW (DC) of new PV generating capacity in 2009, increasing 32 percent from last year © Frederic Neema / photon-pictures.com  Record month: San Francisco resident Barry Wong was one of a record number of Californians to add a new PV system to their homes in September. The battle of claiming the biggest PV system in California is in full swing. First there was San Francisco-based developer Recurrent Energy, which in May announced it would complete »California’s largest solar photovoltaic installation« – a 5 MW (DC) plant in San Francisco’s Sunset District – in 2010. Then there was Cleantech America, which in August announced that its 6.25 MW CalRENEW-1 project in the San Joaquin Valley »will be the largest photovoltaic project currently constructed in California.« But the real largest PV project currently under construction in the state of California is moving ahead quietly – without press release or pronouncement – toward completion near the California-Arizona border in eastern Riverside County. First Solar Inc.’s project in Blythe is under construction, company spokesman Alan Bernheimer confirmed to PHOTON International. Although definitely the largest PV system under construction in the Golden State, as of this issue’s publishing deadline First Solar wasn’t saying how large the project actually will be, or when it would be completed. However, according to California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) documents, the fixed-tilt cadmium telluride PV plant is scheduled to come on-line in the fourth quarter of 2009 as either a 7.5 MW or 21 MW (AC) plant. First Solar, which is delivering power to Southern California Edison (SCE) under a 20-year contract, has the option to expand the plant to the larger size. But David Lane, the city manager for Blythe, wrote in a recent editorial in the local Palo Verde Valley Times that the project is indeed 21 MW. First Solar’s Bernheimer would neither confirm nor deny that. Nevertheless, given the company’s proven track record of completing such large-scale projects on-time, PHOTON International includes the system at 24 MW (DC) in estimating California’s newly installed on-grid PV generating capacity in 2009 to be approximately 240 MW (DC). This forecast includes 183 MW (DC) of PV through the California Solar Initiative (CSI) – the state’s onsite PV program for customers of investor-owned utilities installing systems up to about 1 MW. In addition to First Solar’s Blythe project, which was approved by the CPUC under the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) competitive bidding process for large-scale projects, the estimate includes the CalRENEW-1 project and three 1 to 2 MW systems – two rooftop projects being supplied by First Solar for Southern California Edison and one ground-mounted project being supplied by the US subsidiary of German company Solon SE to Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E). The balance, about 22 MW, comes from estimates by the state’s municipal utilities, primarily the Sacramento Municipal Utility District and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. At 240 MW, California’s PV market would grow about 32 percent this year compared to 2008. That would be a significant slowdown from last year, which experienced a growth rate of around 91 percent. The estimate is less than some analysts are expecting for California in 2009. For example, research company iSuppli Corp., in mid-September forecast that installed PV capacity in California’s grid-tied PV market would jump 120 percent this year to around 350 MW. A few weeks later, however, the research group revised its estimate downward, to 305 MW (DC). That’s still too high, according to Larry Sherwood, who authors the Interstate Renewable Energy Council’s annual US Solar Market Trends, an annual »ground-up« market survey of installed capacity supported by solar programs throughout the United States. For the past two years, PHOTON International has conducted a similar survey, and turned up results closely in line with Sherwood’s (see PI 2/2009, p. 18 and PI 2/2008, p. 42). For 2009, the researcher sees around 215 MW being connected to California’s grid, which does not include the assumption that First Solar will complete its 24 MW plant in Blythe by the end of this year. Residential market shows strength Residential and public sector projects in California are providing the strongest growth in 2009 in terms of both installed capacity and new applications, while commercial private sector projects have suffered the most from the recession and lack of bank financing. According to the CSI program data, about 43 MW of residential systems had been installed in the first three quarters of 2009. That’s already nearly equal to the installed capacity of residential systems that the three utilities in the CSI program – SCE, PG&E and San Diego Gas & Electric – reported to PHOTON International for the complete year 2008, which included projects funded by CSI and predecessor programs. In September, the CSI program showed the largest number and capacity of residential systems completed in a month, with 1,284 systems contributing a combined 6.2 MW. In August, the program also received the largest number of monthly applications for new residential PV projects, with 2,107 new requests accounting for 10.8 MW – indicating continued strong growth in the residential sector heading into the final quarter and 2010. Overall, 10,190 applications for residential projects were registered in the first three quarters of 2009 – about 54 percent up from the same period of 2008. New non-residential applications, on the other hand, nearly stagnated through the third quarter compared to last year. CSI data shows 439 new applications during the period, which was only three more than the same period of 2008. Moreover, after connecting approximately 119 MW of non-residential system to their grids in all of 2008, CSI data showed that only 74 percent of that was completed through this year’s third quarter in the service territories of California’s three large investor-owned utilities. In total, the CPUC reported completion of approximately 131 MW of CSI projects through the end of September, with another 135 MW of »pending« projects. CSI quarterly data shows a lumpy year, with an extraordinarily high installed capacity in the first quarter – 61.5 MW – due to uncertainty surrounding federal tax benefits that pushed a large number of installations into early 2009 that were originally scheduled for completion in late 2008. As the recession took hold, installation rates slowed, showing only 34.7 MW and 34.9 MW installed in the second and third quarters, respectively, according to CPUC data. Based on pending projects in the pipeline, the normally stronger last quarter and the improving economy, PHOTON International expects approximately 52 MW of CSI projects will be competed in the fourth quarter. Garrett Hering © PHOTON International, November 2009 Duplicate only with allowance of PHOTON Europe GmbH, Aachen, Germany  back