Delphi Study: Photovoltaics in 2020

A new study tries to forecast the development of PV in Europe until 2020.

© PHOTON International What role will photovoltaics play in 20 years? Wolfgang Berger's new book attempts to answer that question.

According to their estimates, solar energy will cover between 0.5 and 6 percent of Europe's energy needs. Although in comparison to other renewable energies PV's contribution in the years leading up to 2020 will be rather low, it will still experience the greatest growth among related industries by 2050 -- that is, if the necessary subsidies remain in place. The experts foresee a 30 percent price reduction by 2020.

In addition to the role of PV, the 157-page book covers areas like cost development, technology, and political programs. The author also explains the Delphi methodology and the background of his study. By commenting on and summarizing various quotations, Berger gives readers a sense of the diverse range of opinions among PV experts.

The research facility Fraunhofer-Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI) in Karlsruhe, Germany, conducted Delphi Studies in Germany in 1993 and 1998. They primarily focused on global scientific and technological development; the energy sector constituted just one of 12 research subjects.

This reasonably priced study gives some interesting views on the long-term development of photovoltaics. ik

Photovoltaics in Europe in the Year 2020
Wolfgang Berger
Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, 2001
157 pages, paperback
EUR15.26 ($13.30)
ISBN 3-7001-3017-1

Iris Krampitz
© PHOTON International, April 2002